The 1997 movie, Wag the Dog, has been on my mind lately. It had a great cast. Dustin Hoffman, Robert DeNiro, Woody Harrelson and Anne Hecke were just a few of the excellent actors that were in the movie. It was considered political satire twenty-five years ago. Not today.
In June 2022, I believe life is truly imitating art.
To be succinct, ladies and gentlemen, we are living in dangerous times.
In the movie, a phony military crisis was created in Albania to distract American voters. Why? Because the president was suddenly involved in a White House sex scandal. The event involving an underaged girl had occurred in the Oval Office. Now the president’s re-election bid was in doubt with less than two weeks before the general election.
The movie was based on Larry Beinhart’s novel, American Hero. The always unpredictable critics liked the movie. And it unexpectedly did well at the box office making $64.3 million. It only cost $15 million to make. Political movies are always a risky proposition. But, Wag the Dog, considered a ‘sleeper’ movie, was lucky. It found an audience.
The title of the movie has also become part of the political lexicon in American politics — whenever a prominent politician gets in trouble — usually for inexcusable and improper behavior of some sort.
In 2022, I am getting that same kind of feeling that I had a quarter of a century ago. Yes, indeed, the American voters must be distracted again from reality.
Why?
A high inflation recession has arrived. The US is presently involved in a proxy war in Ukraine — with Russia being the targeted adversary. And the possibility of a military confrontation between the US and NATO against Russia remains a serious concern.
But tensions have receded a bit because former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger, 99 years old, who appears to want to live forever, suggested that, in the end, Ukraine might have to forfeit some territories to Russia before the war truly ends. Kissinger’s geopolitical prescription has not gone down well within Ukraine, or NATO, or the White House.
Why? Taiwan. Of late, China, like their Russian neighbors, is doing some aggressive and public posturing of its own in northeast Asia. Most observers are not taking China’s public statements too seriously. But China is suffering from serious unemployment, especially amongst their young (18 years old to 24 years old) due to continued shutdowns within their major eastern cities due to recent Covid-19 outbreaks. And, overall, their economy is struggling mightily to produce quality jobs for their college graduates.
(Remember Covid-19? It killed over one million Americans, scarred another million-plus, but the topic has simply vanished from corporate TV networks. Nothing must get in the way of American capitalism, corruption and Wall Street.)
Despite their domestic troubles, the Chinese leadership wants Taiwan to be a permanent part of China once again. But Taiwan is better armed, extremely motivated and properly prepared for a military showdown against China. Not that they could win, but Taiwan could inflict some significant casualties and damage upon the Chinese military. And China, despite its constant threats to invade Taiwan, knows this all too well. Hence, the Taiwanese military is quite good.
So why is Taiwan suddenly on America’s radar? Because China is starting to flex its considerable (military) muscles in East Asia. Meaning? Chinese President Xi Jinping is putting the band back together. China wants the wayward territories back under its control. But President Biden has recently blurted out that the US would defend Taiwan. So why has Taiwan become a point of interest?
Folks, look no further than Hong Kong. Xi Jinping has for all intents and purposes discarded the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration that was negotiated between British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and Chinese Chairman Deng Xiaoping.
In short, Hong Kong was to maintain its basic freedoms and functions as a ‘Special Administrative’ entity (one country, two systems) for 50 years after the official ‘Handover’ which occurred in July 1997.
In other words, Hong Kong would be allowed to function as a “Special Administrative” territory until 2047. It never happened. Twenty-five years after the ‘Joint Declaration’ was implemented, Hong Kong’s civil society and political structure have been dismantled.
Hong Kong, in reality, is now just another Chinese city. President Xi has wanted this new distinction for Hong Kong for many years. This former British colony is finally back in the fold.
Now — Taiwan is the new geopolitical objective for China.
US President Joe Biden is in big trouble — politically. He is struggling on a number of fronts, domestically and internationally. Biden, who is closing in on 80 years of age, appears to be increasingly overwhelmed by events. Moments of mental confusion and a growing number of incomprehensible statements have become deeply worrying for many American voters.
Most Americans ‘like’ Joe Biden. But as the domestic and global situations become more complicated and dangerous — Biden’s age has become a huge factor. His potential re-election bid in 2024 is fraught with fear and concern.
Hence, once an individual finds himself (Biden) riding in the saddle of history, he does not have the luxury of getting out of the saddle once events are in play.
The most serious is the continued presence and rise of inflation in America. Americans are dealing with higher costs for clothing, food, gas and rents. Their paychecks are literally shrinking in terms of buying power — everyday.
President Biden blames Russian leader Vladimir Putin and the war in Ukraine as the primary reasons for the worst inflation to hit America in over forty years. But most Americans can’t find Ukraine on a map. Therefore, they don’t give a damn about the war in Ukraine. What they do give a damn about is their standard of living is dropping fast.
Note: The Democratic Party is terrified. Mid-term elections are fast approaching, and most analysts believe the Democrats will lose their slim majorities in BOTH Houses of Congress.
America is over $31 trillion in debt (private & public). Financial people are increasingly concerned about this growing crisis. Annual budget deficits of over $1 trillion dollars are becoming commonplace. Wall Street shows every indication that a recession is already here. The Federal Reserve has recently raised interest rates near 7%.
Why is this important? Because approximately 3,000 US businesses are considered to be ‘Zombie’ companies. These are businesses that have operated for at least ten years, but they are no longer profitable. They can no longer even pay the interest on their multimillion dollar loans. They are strapped for cash. Period.
As a result, many of these businesses will close. Interest rates for new loans is simply too high. These companies, to survive in the short term, will either layoff thousands of workers, or they will simply declare bankruptcy.
To be blunt, a nasty financial shitstorm is looming on America’s horizon. There is no escape from this reality. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jaime Dimon has recently stated that the US is heading for a financial “Hurricane” in the very near future. Many other Wall Street veterans agree. The Day of Reckoning is fast approaching for America. Yes, indeed, a global monsoon is on the way. I believe the wreckage will be quite substantial.
Finally, millions of young Americans are falling by the wayside. The middle-class jobs in the manufacturing sector are just a memory. Consequently, most young people possess low-paying jobs in the service sector that are simply ‘shit jobs.’ They have absolutely no real value. No benefits. No retirement plans.
Record numbers of young people are no longer entering, or attending, US colleges and universities. National statistics show that Michigan and Indiana have experienced the largest decreases in student enrollments in higher education. Surveys have discovered that these students believe, quite correctly in my opinion, that a college education is simply too expensive. And going $30,000 to $80,000 in debt to get an undergraduate degree is tantamount to financial suicide. Again, I think they have a valid point!
One side effect from this diminishing sense of hope for the future, the membership in ‘white power’ militia groups has accelerated greatly. White males are becoming a major concern for American domestic security. These white males feel increasingly alienated from American society. They sense that they have become ‘non-essential’ Americans. To some degree, they are right.
Evidence of their total desperation and separation from America is that too many of the “mass shooters” in America, during 2022, have been white and young. Their anger is palpable. Their rage is self-evident. The murder of thousands of Americans over the past few years, by young white males, indicates America has a deep-seated problem. Take away a person’s hopes and dreams, and you are asking for irrefutable trouble.
Again, though, President Biden appears to be helpless. His leadership skills are fading. He shuffles along barely coherent of the reality staring him in the face. To be honest, the most powerful nation (for now) in the world is led by a man who is clearly decades beyond his prime. I like Joe Biden. But he is not the person we need at this pivotal moment of great dissonance and danger within America.
What scares me is that the powers-that-be may decide to start a war to distract Americans from the fundamental challenges confronting them and the nation. To be blunt, multiple crises are now staring America straight in-the-face.
If America went to war in Ukraine or Taiwan, or both, the entire dynamics of our society would change. But the problems that America are dealing with would not go away. They would only get worse.
On 7 December 1941, when the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor, US unemployment stood at 9.9%. The Great Depression had not ended. It did on this day. Within days, American unemployment figures almost disappeared. The rest is history.
Wars are important. They alter societies whether a nation wins or loses.
Nothing remains the same.
Hence, no administration of recent memory needs a fundamental ‘reset’ more than the Biden administration in 2022.
But let’s also pray that President Biden does not ‘Wag the Dog’ in Ukraine or Taiwan. Or both.
America’s direct involvement in either (or both) theater would be disastrous.
In the aftermath, a war against Russia or China would alter the course of world affairs forever. A war(s) of this magnitude would forever alter the historical arch of America. This point is absolute and without argument.
Thus, the American empire, like the British empire before it, will become an historical footnote for future historians.
For Great Britain, one day they ruled the waves on every major body of water in the world. They were victorious in WWI and WWII.
However, after WWII ended, the British people stood in bread lines, and food was rationed until 1950.
A decade later, the British empire was gone. Too many wars. Too many misadventures.
America, are you listening? Too many wars have bankrupted the country.
Remember, America, you are not beyond the inescapable forces of history!